Research

What happened, and what it means.

Markets poised for a dovish rate surprise, inflation still stuck in the supply chain, stocks getting bullish on the macro… and what we learned from charting every bubble indicator we know.

Stagflation now, reflation to come, elation in labor markets… and consternation for PE

Strait skepticism, the US consumer peaks, equities break new record… and investing in the Carney project, one year in

Growth data stronger, markets calmer, where to hide from inflation… and why investing through the supply shock is all about demand.

Inflation and interest rates heading up, stagflationary signals flashing, bond markets take a hit… and how to track pass-through.

The new interest rate debate, labor market thawing, equities over-concentrated… and a monetarist viewpoint on the inflation outlook.

Our latest macro scenarios, a hawkish shift, unbeatable earnings… and why you should take “stagflation” seriously.

Consumers still spending, markets still rising, the way is cleared for Warsh… and our constructive view on Canada.

Updated inflation views, the wisdom of the Beige Book, markets spin right round… and some GOing concerns.

What’s changed, what’s been missed, what’s next… and how to think about energy imports.

No new information has come to light, man; labor market improves; markets rebound… and how much have financial conditions tightened?

More volatility, no information; a peek at March macro data; the outlook for gold improves… and why private credit is not a systemic risk.

Iran War escalation situation, it’s too hot for Goldilocks, gold as physical Bitcoin… and why it might be 1990 all over again in credit

Our latest thinking on Iran, mixed macro updates, private credit musings… and an autopsy on the software selloff

Socrates on Iran, Sisyphus on payrolls, and Seneca on gold… and evidence for the year-long delay in tariff pass-through.

The currents and tides of the PE cycle, what markets don’t understand about private credit, why you shouldn’t overestimate the economic impact of Iran… and the risks stalking Goldilocks’ latest visit

The trade war is now a civil war, the interest rate outlook gets blurry, shutdown distorts Q4 GDP numbers… and how to invest in a “Goldilocks” regime.

The jobs/inflation trend reversal, a blurry interest rate path, software rout continues… and some personal observations on AI in the workplace.

Taking stock at the one-month hurdle, a growth-to-value rotation gains steam, the public/private cycle prepares to flip… and why foxes will outperform hedgehogs.

The art of Warsh, cosmic background inflation radiation, macro moves markets… and why we’re not betting on long-term dollar debasement.

Still bullish on Japan, US economy GOing OK, private markets jumping on the European security theme,… and Trump May Always Chicken Out, but you should Believe Every Threat.

Powell comes under renewed political assault, investors grow optimistic on macro, secondary winds blow in private markets… and inflationary forces build in the supply chain.

Sectoral labor market breakdown, insatiable risk appetites, the truth about housing investment… and the real meaning of “election year.”

The big macro questions of 2026 will be answered early, time to park the sleigh on the “Santa Rally,” U.S. economy still sluggish… and our cross-asset performance review for 2025.