Research

The art of Warsh, cosmic background inflation radiation, macro moves markets… and why we’re not betting on long-term dollar debasement.

Still bullish on Japan, US economy GOing OK, private markets jumping on the European security theme,… and Trump May Always Chicken Out, but you should Believe Every Threat.

Powell comes under renewed political assault, investors grow optimistic on macro, secondary winds blow in private markets… and inflationary forces build in the supply chain.

Sectoral labor market breakdown, insatiable risk appetites, the truth about housing investment… and the real meaning of “election year.”

The big macro questions of 2026 will be answered early, time to park the sleigh on the “Santa Rally,” U.S. economy still sluggish… and our cross-asset performance review for 2025.

What we learned from evaluating everyone else’s 2025 outlooks, why you should ignore the November jobs and price data (even though markets didn’t)… and our 2026 Outlook is out.

Powell positions himself to go out with a pause, Aerospace and Defense enters a new phase, a tale of two markets, … and the implications of declining Fed autonomy

Hassett the hatchet, Japan’s rude awakening, the Fed steps up to the plate… and the age of ambiguity is upon us.

Stocks roar back to life, the UK Government survives a budget, rising inflation risk… and should the Fed “look through” tariffs?

A week of inconclusive developments, AI jitters signal market top(?), Fed speak oblique … and a “K-shaped” M&A recovery leaves middle markets behind.

Shutdown ends (but data drought lingers), debasement trade re-starts, how to think about AI… and does the “wartime economy” analogy still add value?

AI skepticism resurfaces, a shutdown deal comes into focus, ISM flashes stagflation… and could Canada be the G7’s next star performer?

A symmetric dissent, QT ends, earnings trend… and is the Fed setting itself up for another Dotcom bubble?

Official data return, commodities reverse course, a warning on private credit… and the Fed cuts against a backdrop of easy financial conditions.

Bubble warnings multiply, sentiment sours, safe havens shift… and why more credit defaults aren’t a systemic risk.

A tariff escalation, inflation and stagnation, a golden ovation … and Japan’s transformation

The outlook for private markets improves, what consumers are actually buying, notes on the “two-speed economy” …and why you can ignore the shutdown.

The U.S. Economy at a crossroads, B2C booming but B2B “GO”ing broke, why the Fed’s dilemma isn’t PE’s problem… and are we all goldbugs now?