Research

Summer break

Prices retreat, the Beige Book brightens, claims keep falling… and a labor market healthy enough to take a hike.

The ceasefire cracks, Canada’s jobs get a World Cup lift, Japan calls its money home… and risk goes on sale.

SCOTUS backs the Fed, labor markets healthy, private credit stays gated… and Warsh’s nerdiest task force may be his most important.

Core inflation running hot, (but not in Canada), tech drags stocks lower… and a a new framing for AI and the labor market.

Updated scenario weights, A hawkish shift from the Fed, task forces… and an update on AI and business formation.

What happened, and what it means.

Markets poised for a dovish rate surprise, inflation still stuck in the supply chain, stocks getting bullish on the macro… and what we learned from charting every bubble indicator we know.

Stagflation now, reflation to come, elation in labor markets… and consternation for PE

Strait skepticism, the US consumer peaks, equities break new record… and investing in the Carney project, one year in

Growth data stronger, markets calmer, where to hide from inflation… and why investing through the supply shock is all about demand.

Inflation and interest rates heading up, stagflationary signals flashing, bond markets take a hit… and how to track pass-through.

The new interest rate debate, labor market thawing, equities over-concentrated… and a monetarist viewpoint on the inflation outlook.

Our latest macro scenarios, a hawkish shift, unbeatable earnings… and why you should take “stagflation” seriously.

Consumers still spending, markets still rising, the way is cleared for Warsh… and our constructive view on Canada.

Updated inflation views, the wisdom of the Beige Book, markets spin right round… and some GOing concerns.

What’s changed, what’s been missed, what’s next… and how to think about energy imports.

No new information has come to light, man; labor market improves; markets rebound… and how much have financial conditions tightened?

More volatility, no information; a peek at March macro data; the outlook for gold improves… and why private credit is not a systemic risk.

Iran War escalation situation, it’s too hot for Goldilocks, gold as physical Bitcoin… and why it might be 1990 all over again in credit

Our latest thinking on Iran, mixed macro updates, private credit musings… and an autopsy on the software selloff

Socrates on Iran, Sisyphus on payrolls, and Seneca on gold… and evidence for the year-long delay in tariff pass-through.

The currents and tides of the PE cycle, what markets don’t understand about private credit, why you shouldn’t overestimate the economic impact of Iran… and the risks stalking Goldilocks’ latest visit

The trade war is now a civil war, the interest rate outlook gets blurry, shutdown distorts Q4 GDP numbers… and how to invest in a “Goldilocks” regime.

The jobs/inflation trend reversal, a blurry interest rate path, software rout continues… and some personal observations on AI in the workplace.