Research
Our Latest Insights on the Economy and Markets
Follow our regular commentary, access our latest macro scenarios and industry outlooks, and explore our in-depth thinking on key themes.
Follow our regular commentary, access our latest macro scenarios and industry outlooks, and explore our in-depth thinking on key themes.
Quarterly Outlook
Our quarterly assessment of the economic outlook, with updates to our scenarios and deep analysis of topical issues.
| /Title | /Description | /Date | /Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
Mapping the Aftershocks 2026 Q2 Quarterly Scenario Update | We analyze the scale of the global supply shock generated by the Iran conflict, highlight the under-appreciated probability of rising interest rates and their implications across asset classes, and refresh our medium-term scenario-based outlook. | May 1 2026 | |
What Won't Happen 2026 Outlook | Five things we don’t think will happen in 2026, three out-of-consensus geographical calls, and an update to our medium-term cyclical scenarios. | Dec 19 2025 | |
Better Sluggish than Sorry Q4 Quarterly Scenario Update | We introduce our three anchor macro scenarios. The weight assigned to a continued “muddle through” is below 50%. But the alternatives are not necessarily preferable. | Oct 30 2025 |
2026 Q2 Quarterly Scenario Update
We analyze the scale of the global supply shock generated by the Iran conflict, highlight the under-appreciated probability of rising interest rates and their implications across asset classes, and refresh our medium-term scenario-based outlook.
2026 Outlook
Five things we don’t think will happen in 2026, three out-of-consensus geographical calls, and an update to our medium-term cyclical scenarios.
Q4 Quarterly Scenario Update
We introduce our three anchor macro scenarios. The weight assigned to a continued “muddle through” is below 50%. But the alternatives are not necessarily preferable.
